10-Year Breakeven · Expected InflationNORMAL

Does the bond market trust the Fed?

Expected inflation is within historical norms.

And expectations are easing down.

TARGET ~2%

2.35%

2.35% expected inflation — 0.35 pts above the 2.0% target.

Higher than 70% of all readings since 2003.

FRED / Shiller · as of Oct 2026 · computed