Fed Funds Rate · Overnight Policy TargetRESTRICTIVE

Is the Fed restricting the economy?

Policy is restrictive, leaning against inflation.

And the Fed is hiking.

NEUTRAL ~2.5%

3.75%

3.75% policy rate — 1.25 pts above the 2.5% neutral estimate.

Lower than 56% of all readings since 1954.

FRED / Shiller · as of Oct 2026 · computed