Nonfarm payroll change, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings.
Comprehensive weekly measure of US financial conditions in debt and equity.
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in 16d Weekly count of first-time filings for state unemployment benefits.
Federal Open Market Committee target range for federal funds rate.
Total job openings, hiring rate, and voluntary quits rate.
National average price for regular retail gasoline.
Fed's preferred inflation gauge and household personal saving rate.
Comprehensive weekly measure of US financial conditions in debt and equity.
Real output of goods and services produced by labor and property in the US.
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in 9d Weekly count of first-time filings for state unemployment benefits.
National average price for regular retail gasoline.
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in 3d Final monthly reading of consumer confidence and inflation views.
Comprehensive weekly measure of US financial conditions in debt and equity.
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in 2d Weekly count of first-time filings for state unemployment benefits.
Expected inflation is within historical norms.
Dr. Priya Basis Policy Wonk
"Reading of 2.35% on 10y breakeven implies balanced aggregate supply and demand conditions." Sal from the Diner Main Street
"At 2.35% for 10y breakeven, regular folks can plan next month's budget without white knuckles." RELEASE ★ On Your Board
Yesterday A normal upward slope. No warning here.
Dr. Priya Basis Policy Wonk
"Near-term forward spread (6-quarter ahead vs 3-month) corroborates the 0.88% curve signal." Sal from the Diner Main Street
"Spread at 0.88% means little at the counter — but our equipment loan rate is still 8.25%." In Dec 1999, Shiller CAPE touched a historical extreme of 44.2x. Historical peaks often signal cycle inflection points.
In Oct 2008, VIX volatility touched a historical extreme of 59.9. Historical peaks often signal cycle inflection points.
FACTOID ★ On Your Board
3d ago In Oct 2023, Credit spread touched a historical extreme of 4.42%. Historical peaks often signal cycle inflection points.
RELEASE ★ On Your Board
4d ago Appetite for risk is healthy.
Sal from the Diner Main Street
"Credit spread at 3.31% feels about right. Customers are paying cash and ordering usuals." Chet Rally Perma-Bull
"Credit spread at 3.31% is an encouraging sign. Corporate earnings power remains robust." Doris Gloom Doom-Bear
"Credit spread at 3.31% is the calm before the storm. Lagged effects haven't fully bitten yet." RELEASE ★ On Your Board
4d ago All three gauges point to mania.
Doris Gloom Doom-Bear
"Market mood at 84/100 confirms the macro thesis. Excesses are finally unwinding painfully." Dr. Priya Basis Policy Wonk
"Empirical precedent: when Market mood touches 84/100, real activity metrics degrade within 2 quarters." Sal from the Diner Main Street
"Numbers like 84/100 for Market mood mean tough talks about hourly scheduling and overtime." Currency values are tracking in a balanced range.
Dr. Priya Basis Policy Wonk
"Reading of 0.0% on US Dollar implies balanced aggregate supply and demand conditions." Sal from the Diner Main Street
"Things feel predictable with US Dollar at 0.0%. Steady business is good business." Volatility is about average.
Sal from the Diner Main Street
"Things feel predictable with VIX volatility at 20.0. Steady business is good business." Chet Rally Perma-Bull
"VIX volatility at 20.0 is an encouraging sign. Corporate earnings power remains robust." Doris Gloom Doom-Bear
"Don't be lulled by VIX volatility at 20.0. Peak complacency always precedes the drawdown." BAND SHIFT ★ On Your Board
4d ago Appetite for risk is healthy.
Chet Rally Perma-Bull
"From Reaching for yield to Risk-on on Credit spread removes uncertainty. Dip buyers get rewarded here." Doris Gloom Doom-Bear
"Leaving Reaching for yield for Risk-on on Credit spread marks the start of the squeeze. Don't look away." FACTOID ★ On Your Board
4d ago In Aug 1982, Yield curve touched a historical extreme of 4.09%. Historical peaks often signal cycle inflection points.
RELEASE ★ On Your Board
5d ago The median home breaks the 30% rule.
Dr. Priya Basis Policy Wonk
"Housing represents ~40% of core CPI basket; relief here at 31.2% filters through with a lag." Sal from the Diner Main Street
"At 31.2%, starter homes are a fairy tale. Kids in our town are staying in their parents' basements." In Apr 2009, Card strain touched a historical extreme of 6.8%. Historical peaks often signal cycle inflection points.
Oil prices are spiking into dangerous territory.
Chet Rally Perma-Bull
"Crude oil at $102.0/bbl shows steady underlying momentum. No reason to jump off the bull train." Doris Gloom Doom-Bear
"Surface stability in Crude oil ($102.0/bbl) masks deteriorating corporate credit cushions." In Apr 2022, Quits rate touched a historical extreme of 3.0%. Historical peaks often signal cycle inflection points.
Gas prices are eating heavily into disposable cash.
Doris Gloom Doom-Bear
"Don't be lulled by Gas price at $4.34/gal. Peak complacency always precedes the drawdown." Dr. Priya Basis Policy Wonk
"Gas price at $4.34/gal sits comfortably within historical distribution bounds. Low cycle variance." Sal from the Diner Main Street
"Gas price at $4.34/gal feels about right. Customers are paying cash and ordering usuals." RELEASE ★ On Your Board
Oct 10 Layoffs are near historical lows.
Doris Gloom Doom-Bear
"Claims at 199k are the first tremor. Small business margins are cracking under rates." Dr. Priya Basis Policy Wonk
"Initial claims at 199k are high-frequency and non-revised, making them a pristine leading gauge." Sal from the Diner Main Street
"Claims at 199k? I put a help-wanted sign in my window and had 20 resumes by noon." Credit is flowing freely — conditions are accommodative.
Chet Rally Perma-Bull
"Financial conditions at -0.50 shows steady underlying momentum. No reason to jump off the bull train." Doris Gloom Doom-Bear
"Don't be lulled by Financial conditions at -0.50. Peak complacency always precedes the drawdown." BAND SHIFT ★ On Your Board
Sep 11 A normal upward slope. No warning here.
Chet Rally Perma-Bull
"Reclassification to Normal for Yield curve is backward-looking. Forward outlook is bright." Doris Gloom Doom-Bear
"A move to Normal in Yield curve confirms systemic friction. Downside protection is key." BAND SHIFT ★ On Your Board
Sep 10 The median home breaks the 30% rule.
Sal from the Diner Main Street
"Label change to Cost-burdened on Housing burden. All I know is our egg supplier bill went up again." Chet Rally Perma-Bull
"Reclassification to Cost-burdened for Housing burden is backward-looking. Forward outlook is bright." Doris Gloom Doom-Bear
"A move to Cost-burdened in Housing burden confirms systemic friction. Downside protection is key." Volatility is about average.
Doris Gloom Doom-Bear
"Leaving Calm for Normal on VIX volatility marks the start of the squeeze. Don't look away." Dr. Priya Basis Policy Wonk
"Band shift to Normal (VIX volatility) reflects threshold effects in credit and liquidity spreads." Sal from the Diner Main Street
"VIX volatility is in Normal now. Hope that means loan rates ease up for the hardware store next door." RELEASE ★ On Your Board
Sep 1 Inflation is running above target.
Dr. Priya Basis Policy Wonk
"At 3.7%, watch supercore (services ex-housing) to isolate wage-driven momentum." Sal from the Diner Main Street
"At 3.7%, folks still wince at the register. A cup of coffee shouldn't feel like a splurge." Policy is restrictive, leaning against inflation.
Doris Gloom Doom-Bear
"Surface stability in Fed funds (3.75%) masks deteriorating corporate credit cushions." Dr. Priya Basis Policy Wonk
"Fed funds at 3.75% sits comfortably within historical distribution bounds. Low cycle variance." Sal from the Diner Main Street
"Fed funds at 3.75% feels about right. Customers are paying cash and ordering usuals." Industrial activity is growing at a modest pace.
Dr. Priya Basis Policy Wonk
"Notice Industrial output at 2.2%: trend dispersion is tight and standard errors are low this cycle." Sal from the Diner Main Street
"Things feel predictable with Industrial output at 2.2%. Steady business is good business." Hiring has slowed to stall speed.
Chet Rally Perma-Bull
"Payrolls at +51k shows steady underlying momentum. No reason to jump off the bull train." Doris Gloom Doom-Bear
"Don't be lulled by Payrolls at +51k. Peak complacency always precedes the drawdown." Growth is tracking near long-term trend.
Sal from the Diner Main Street
"Real GDP at 2.2% feels about right. Customers are paying cash and ordering usuals." Chet Rally Perma-Bull
"Real GDP at 2.2% is an encouraging sign. Corporate earnings power remains robust." Doris Gloom Doom-Bear
"Real GDP at 2.2% is the calm before the storm. Lagged effects haven't fully bitten yet." Pay is just barely trailing prices.
Sal from the Diner Main Street
"Real wages at -0.4% feels about right. Customers are paying cash and ordering usuals." Chet Rally Perma-Bull
"Solid print for Real wages (-0.4%). Fundamentals continue to defy the doom-mongers." Doris Gloom Doom-Bear
"Don't be lulled by Real wages at -0.4%. Peak complacency always precedes the drawdown." Shoppers are purchasing solid volume.
Sal from the Diner Main Street
"Retail sales at 2.5% feels about right. Customers are paying cash and ordering usuals." Chet Rally Perma-Bull
"Retail sales at 2.5% shows steady underlying momentum. No reason to jump off the bull train." Doris Gloom Doom-Bear
"Surface stability in Retail sales (2.5%) masks deteriorating corporate credit cushions." RELEASE ★ On Your Board
Sep 1 Latest official reading recorded for Sahm nowcast as of 2026-09-01.
Doris Gloom Doom-Bear
"Even at 0.00 pts, the buffer before triggering the 0.50 threshold is paper thin." Dr. Priya Basis Policy Wonk
"Claudia Sahm designed this indicator (0.00 pts) as an empirical nowcast with zero false positives." Sal from the Diner Main Street
"Economists call it 0.00 pts. At the diner, families are ordering waters instead of sodas." Pay is just barely trailing prices.
Chet Rally Perma-Bull
"Reclassification to Slipping for Real wages is backward-looking. Forward outlook is bright." Doris Gloom Doom-Bear
"A move to Slipping in Real wages confirms systemic friction. Downside protection is key." Permit filings are near historical norms.
Doris Gloom Doom-Bear
"Don't be lulled by Building permits at 1403k. Peak complacency always precedes the drawdown." Dr. Priya Basis Policy Wonk
"Building permits at 1403k sits comfortably within historical distribution bounds. Low cycle variance." Sal from the Diner Main Street
"At 1403k for Building permits, regular folks can plan next month's budget without white knuckles." RELEASE ★ On Your Board
Aug 1 Consumer morale is at recessionary lows.
Dr. Priya Basis Policy Wonk
"Notice Consumer sentiment at 52.0: trend dispersion is tight and standard errors are low this cycle." Sal from the Diner Main Street
"Consumer sentiment at 52.0 feels about right. Customers are paying cash and ordering usuals." Core inflation is stubbornly above target.
Dr. Priya Basis Policy Wonk
"Watch the cross-elasticity: Core PCE at 3.0% exerts indirect drag on credit availability." Sal from the Diner Main Street
"Cautious vibe at 3.0% on Core PCE. Small businesses feel the pinch before spreadsheets do." Openings and jobseekers are roughly in balance.
Chet Rally Perma-Bull
"Job openings at 1.01 ratio shows steady underlying momentum. No reason to jump off the bull train." Doris Gloom Doom-Bear
"Job openings at 1.01 ratio is the calm before the storm. Lagged effects haven't fully bitten yet." Workers are cautious about switching jobs.
Doris Gloom Doom-Bear
"Quits rate at 1.9% is flashing yellow. Cracks in the cycle are becoming undeniable." Dr. Priya Basis Policy Wonk
"At 1.9%, Quits rate enters the upper quartile of historical volatility. Transmission lags matter." Sal from the Diner Main Street
"When Quits rate hits 1.9%, my delivery drivers talk about their utility bills rising." Households are saving less than typical.
Chet Rally Perma-Bull
"Saving rate at 4.1% is an encouraging sign. Corporate earnings power remains robust." Doris Gloom Doom-Bear
"Saving rate at 4.1% is the calm before the storm. Lagged effects haven't fully bitten yet."