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Live FRED Data
economic indicators
A feed of economic insight cards. Each one takes a single derived metric from real data and answers a question you actually care about — in one honest read.
The economy
Sahm Rule · Recession Nowcast CLEAR
Are we in a recession?
No — the signal is calm. 0.00
as of Aug 2026
Yield Curve · 10-Year minus 3-Month NORMAL
Is a recession being predicted?
A normal upward slope. No warning here. 0.89%
as of Sep 2026 · normal since Sep 2026
CPI Inflation · Prices vs a Year Ago ELEVATED
Is inflation under control?
Inflation is running above target. 3.4%
as of Aug 2026 · elevated since May 2026
Real Wages · Pay vs Prices HOLDING EVEN
Are paychecks beating inflation?
Pay is roughly keeping up with prices. 0.0%
as of Aug 2026 · holding even since Aug 2026
Housing Affordability · Payment vs Paycheck COST-BURDENED
Is the typical house affordable?
The median home breaks the 30% rule. 30.6%
as of Sep 2026 · cost-burdened since Sep 2026
Card Delinquencies · Household Strain NORMAL
Are households falling behind?
Delinquencies are around their long-run norm. 2.9%
as of Apr 2026 · normal since Jan 2026
The markets
Market Mood · Composite of 3 Gauges MANIA
Is the market running on greed?
All three gauges point to mania. 88
as of Sep 2026 · mania since Jul 2026
Buffett Indicator · Market Cap ÷ GDP MANIA
Are stocks in a bubble?
Mania territory — stocks dwarf the economy. 256%
as of Apr 2026 · mania since Apr 2026
VIX · The Fear Gauge NORMAL
Is the market too calm?
Volatility is about average. 17.8
as of Sep 2026 · normal since Sep 2026
High-Yield Spread · Risk Appetite REACHING FOR YIELD
Is the bond market greedy?
Investors are barely paid to take risk — peak greed. 2.70%
as of Sep 2026 · reaching for yield since Jul 2026