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economic indicators
A feed of economic insight cards. Each one takes a single derived metric from real data and answers a question you actually care about — in one honest read.
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Desk
The economy
Sahm Rule · Recession Nowcast CLEAR
Are we in a recession?
No — the signal is calm. 0.00
as of Sep 2026
Yield Curve · 10-Year minus 3-Month NORMAL
Is a recession being predicted?
A normal upward slope. No warning here. 0.88%
as of Oct 2026 · normal since Sep 2026
CPI Inflation · Prices vs a Year Ago ELEVATED
Is inflation under control?
Inflation is running above target. 3.7%
as of Sep 2026 · elevated since May 2026
Real Wages · Pay vs Prices SLIPPING
Are paychecks beating inflation?
Pay is just barely trailing prices. -0.4%
as of Sep 2026 · slipping since Sep 2026
Housing Affordability · Payment vs Paycheck COST-BURDENED
Is the typical house affordable?
The median home breaks the 30% rule. 31.2%
as of Oct 2026 · cost-burdened since Sep 2026
Card Delinquencies · Household Strain NORMAL
Are households falling behind?
Delinquencies are around their long-run norm. 2.9%
as of Apr 2026 · normal since Jan 2026
Initial Jobless Claims · Weekly Layoffs VERY LOW
Are layoffs piling up?
Layoffs are near historical lows. 199k
as of Oct 2026
Nonfarm Payrolls · Monthly Job Growth STALLING
Is the economy adding jobs?
Hiring has slowed to stall speed. 51k
as of Sep 2026
Job Openings Ratio · Openings per Jobseeker BALANCED
Are jobs easy to find?
Openings and jobseekers are roughly in balance. 1.01x
as of Aug 2026
Quits Rate · Voluntary Resignations CAUTIOUS
Are workers confident enough to quit?
Workers are cautious about switching jobs. 1.9%
as of Aug 2026
Real GDP · Output vs Year Ago MODERATE
Is economic growth holding up?
Growth is tracking near long-term trend. 2.2%
as of Sep 2026
Industrial Production · Factory & Mine Output MODEST
Is industrial activity expanding?
Industrial activity is growing at a modest pace. 2.2%
as of Sep 2026
Real Retail Sales · Inflation-Adjusted Shopping STRONG
Are consumers buying more goods?
Shoppers are purchasing solid volume. 2.5%
as of Sep 2026
Building Permits · New Housing Pipeline NORMAL
Are homebuilders planning new homes?
Permit filings are near historical norms. 1403k
as of Aug 2026
Fed Funds Rate · Overnight Policy Target RESTRICTIVE
Is the Fed restricting the economy?
Policy is restrictive, leaning against inflation. 3.75%
as of Sep 2026
Core PCE Inflation · Fed's Official Target ELEVATED
Is core inflation near target?
Core inflation is stubbornly above target. 3.0%
as of Aug 2026
10-Year Breakeven · Expected Inflation NORMAL
Does the bond market trust the Fed?
Expected inflation is within historical norms. 2.35%
as of Oct 2026
Gasoline Prices · Regular Pump Average PAINFUL
Is gas straining family budgets?
Gas prices are eating heavily into disposable cash. 4.34
as of Oct 2026
Crude Oil · WTI Benchmark SPIKE
Is oil driving energy costs up?
Oil prices are spiking into dangerous territory. 102
as of Oct 2026
Trade-Weighted Dollar · Currency Strength STABLE
Is the US dollar surging?
Currency values are tracking in a balanced range. 0.0%
as of Oct 2026
Personal Saving Rate · Paycheck Buffer THIN CUSHION
Are families saving a healthy cushion?
Households are saving less than typical. 4.1%
as of Aug 2026
Consumer Sentiment · Michigan Survey GRIM
Do consumers feel confident?
Consumer morale is at recessionary lows. 52
as of Aug 2026
The markets
Market Mood · Composite of 3 Gauges MANIA
Is the market running on greed?
All three gauges point to mania. 84
as of Oct 2026 · mania since Jul 2026
Buffett Indicator · Market Cap ÷ GDP MANIA
Are stocks in a bubble?
Mania territory — stocks dwarf the economy. 255%
as of Apr 2026 · mania since Apr 2026
VIX · The Fear Gauge NORMAL
Is the market too calm?
Volatility is about average. 20.0
as of Oct 2026 · normal since Sep 2026
High-Yield Spread · Risk Appetite RISK-ON
Is the bond market greedy?
Appetite for risk is healthy. 3.31%
as of Oct 2026 · risk-on since Oct 2026
Chicago Fed NFCI · Financial Conditions ACCOMMODATIVE
Is credit flowing easily?
Credit is flowing freely — conditions are accommodative. -0.50
as of Oct 2026
Shiller CAPE · 10-Year P/E Multiple EXPENSIVE
Are stock valuations stretched?
Valuations are stretched well into expensive territory. 30.8x
as of Sep 2023